Government Performance and Life Satisfaction in Contemporary Britain

This paper investigates relationships between public policy outcomes and life satisfaction in contemporary Britain. Monthly national surveys gathered between April 2004 and December 2008 are used to analyze the impact of policy delivery both at the micro and macro levels, the former relating to citizens personal experiences, and the latter to cognitive evaluations of and affective reactions to the effectiveness of policies across the country as a whole. The impact of salient political events and changes in economic context involving the onset of a major financial crisis also are considered. Analyses reveal that policy outcomes, especially microlevel ones, significantly influence life satisfaction. The effects of both micro- and macrolevel outcomes involve both affective reactions to policy delivery and cognitive judgments about government performance. Controlling for these and other factors, the broader economic context in which policy judgments are made also influences life satisfaction. © 2010 Southern Political Science Association

Rupture patterns and preshocks of large earthquakes in the southern San Jacinto fault zone

We relocated the large 1937, 1942, and 1954 earthquakes in the San Jacinto fault zone. The epicenters of the main shocks, aftershocks, and some preshocks were determined using empirical station corrections from recent small events in the study areas. The 1937 (ML 5.9) earthquake has an epicenter between the surface traces of the San Jacinto and Buck Ridge faults, and aftershocks suggest about 7 km of rupture predominantly to the northwest. A significant increase in small earthquake activity occurred about Formula yr before this event. The 1954 (M_L 6.2) earthquake is located at the southeast end of the mapped trace of the San Jacinto fault, and aftershocks suggest about 15 km of rupture further southeast into an area of folded young sediments with no surface fault trace. This event was preceded by a cluster of small earthquakes which occurred within an 8-hr period 10 weeks before the main event and in the eventual rupture zone. The 1942 (M_L 6.3) earthquake is located southwest of the southeast end of the Coyote Creek fault. Large aftershocks of this event are spread over a 15 by 18 km area southwest of the Coyote Creek fault and are not associated with any one fault. The relation of the 1942 event to the San Jacinto fault zone is not simple

Forecasting the 2015 British general election: The Seats-Votes model

This paper applies the Seats-Votes Model to the task of forecasting the outcome of the 2015 election in Britain in terms of the seats won by the three major parties. The model derives originally from the 'Law of Cubic Proportions' the first formal statistical election forecasting model to be developed in Britain. It is an aggregate model which utilises the seats won by the major parties in the previous general election together with vote intentions six months prior to the general election to forecast seats. The model was reasonably successful in forecasting the 2005 and 2010 general elections, but has to be modified to take into account the 'regime shift' which occurred when the Liberal Democrats went into coalition with the Conservatives in 2010

Downs, Stokes and the Dynamics of Electoral Choice

A six-wave 2005–09 national panel survey conducted in conjunction with the British Election Study provided data for an investigation of sources of stability and change in voters’ party preferences. The authors test competing spatial and valence theories of party choice and investigate the hypothesis that spatial calculations provide cues for making valence judgements. Analyses reveal that valence mechanisms – heuristics based on party leader images, party performance evaluations and mutable partisan attachments – outperform a spatial model in terms of strength of direct effects on party choice. However, spatial effects still have sizeable indirect effects on the vote via their influence on valence judgements. The results of exogeneity tests bolster claims about the flow of influence from spatial calculations to valence judgments to electoral choice.</jats:p

A 96-Channel FPGA-based Time-to-Digital Converter

We describe an FPGA-based, 96-channel, time-to-digital converter (TDC) intended for use with the Central Outer Tracker (COT) in the CDF Experiment at the Fermilab Tevatron. The COT system is digitized and read out by 315 TDC cards, each serving 96 wires of the chamber. The TDC is physically configured as a 9U VME card. The functionality is almost entirely programmed in firmware in two Altera Stratix FPGA's. The special capabilities of this device are the availability of 840 MHz LVDS inputs, multiple phase-locked clock modules, and abundant memory. The TDC system operates with an input resolution of 1.2 ns. Each input can accept up to 7 hits per collision. The time-to-digital conversion is done by first sampling each of the 96 inputs in 1.2-ns bins and filling a circular memory; the memory addresses of logical transitions (edges) in the input data are then translated into the time of arrival and width of the COT pulses. Memory pipelines with a depth of 5.5 $\mu$s allow deadtime-less operation in the first-level trigger. The TDC VME interface allows a 64-bit Chain Block Transfer of multiple boards in a crate with transfer-rates up to 47 Mbytes/sec. The TDC also contains a separately-programmed data path that produces prompt trigger data every Tevatron crossing. The full TDC design and multi-card test results are described. The physical simplicity ensures low-maintenance; the functionality being in firmware allows reprogramming for other applications.Comment: 32 pages, 13 figure

Prudence, Principle and Minimal Heuristics: British Public Opinion toward the Use of Military Force in Afghanistan and Libya

Research Highlights and Abstract This article shows: Clear pluralities of British survey respondents opposed their nation's military interventions in Afghanistan and Libya. Opposition to involvement in the conflicts mostly a function of the costs the missions would impose on the nation and concerns about the morality of the missions. Attitudes towards the parties and their leaders are weak predictors of the respondents' attitudes towards involving the nation's military in the conflict. Survey experiment reveals the positions leaders and parties took on sending additional British troops into Afghanistan did not prime support or opposition to such a ‘surge’. Scholarship is divided on the primary drivers of public support for the use of military force. This article addresses this controversy by comparing three competing models of British public opinion towards the use of military force in Afghanistan and Libya. Analyses of national survey data demonstrate that cost-benefit calculations and normative considerations have sizable effects, but leader images and other heuristics have very limited explanatory power. These results are buttressed by experimental evidence showing that leader cues have negligible impacts on attitudes towards participation in a military ‘surge’ in Afghanistan. The minimal role heuristics played in motivating citizen support and opposition to the conflicts in these two countries contrast with their significant relationship to citizen attitudes towards the British intervention in Iraq. These conflicting results suggest that the strength of leader and partisan cues may be animated by the intensity of inter-elite conflict over British involvement in military interventions. </jats:p

Improving Student Dentist Competencies and Perception of Difficulty in Delivering Care to Children with Developmental Disabilities Using a Virtual Patient Module

An interactive, multimedia, virtual patient module was designed and developed on compact disc (CD-ROM) to address the need for student dentists to increase their competence and decrease their perception of difficulty in caring for children with developmental disabilities. A development team consisting of pediatric dentistry faculty members, parents of children with developmental disabilities, an individual with a developmental disability, and educational specialists developed an interactive virtual patient case. The case involved a ten-year-old child with Down syndrome presenting with a painful tooth. Student dentists were required to make decisions regarding proper interactions with the child, as well as appropriate clinical procedures throughout the case. Differences in perceived difficulty level and knowledge change were measured, as well as the student dentists\u27 overall satisfaction with the learning experience. Significant results were obtained in both perceived difficulty level and knowledge-based measures for student dentists. Participants reported overall satisfaction with the modules. Preparing student dentists to provide sensitive and competent care for children with developmental disabilities is a critical need within dentistry. This study demonstrated that an interactive, multimedia (CD-ROM), virtual patient learning module for student dentists is potentially an effective tool in meeting this need

Introducing design in the development of effective climate services

Seasonal to decadal climate predictions have the potential to inform different sectors in adapting their short to medium term practices and plans to climate variability and change. The data these predictions generate, however, is still not readily usable, nor widely used in decision-making. This paper addresses two key challenges: a domain challenge pertaining to an emerging climate services market, where users, tasks and data may be unknown; and an informational challenge pertaining to the interpretation, use and adoption of novel and complex scientific data.The paper provides insights into the contributions design can offer to the development of climate services. We illustrate the key steps and share the main lessons learnt from our experience in the creation of Project Ukko (http://project-ukko.net), a fully working climate services prototype developed within the European project EUPORIAS. To address the domain challenge in climate services, extensive engagement with science and industry stakeholders was required. To address the informational challenge, we applied visualisation techniques that can help users to interpret and utilise the information as simply and quickly as possible. Fostering interdisciplinary teams of design researchers, climate scientists and communication specialists brought a wide range of expertise and competences in all stages of climate services development. Specifically, the project recognised the role of users in co-designing the product. This helped to improve the usability of climate predictions, tailor climate information to answer actual needs of users, better communicate uncertainty, and bridge the gap between state-of-the-art climate predictions and users’ readiness to apply this novel information. Keywords: Visualisation, Human-centred design, User engagement, Wind energy, Climate predictions, Prototyp

The Freshman, vol. 1, no. 15

The Freshman was a weekly, student newsletter issued on Mondays throughout the academic year. The newsletter included calendar notices, coverage of campus social events, lectures, and athletic teams. The intent of the publication was to create unity, a sense of community, and class spirit among first year students. Stories include a notice about the change of shoes issues as part of military uniforms

The Freshman, vol. 1, no. 8

The Freshman was a weekly, student newsletter issued on Mondays throughout the academic year. The newsletter included calendar notices, coverage of campus social events, lectures, and athletic teams. The intent of the publication was to create unity, a sense of community, and class spirit among first year students